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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 8:29 am 
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wulfir wrote:
Kameolontti wrote:
Funny, where Soviets learned not to leave their divisions and corps surrounded Hitler adopted that strategy as the war went on.


JDR_Baboon used to hate posts that pointed out Hitler's stupidity. Carry on.


To be fair he had many successes early on, even with France iirc. he overruled his generals and his stance proved out to be right.

So he possibly drew out the conclusion that if he took a gambit against which the generals were warning him and he succeeded that
1) the generals were simply not willing to take huge risks in critical matters and their way too would have prevailed though on that one occasion he was right and they were being too cautious for their own good
2) the generals and general staff don't know shit about shit and whatever idea Hitler comes up with is pure genius that others can't possibly grasp - every time he succeeds with this reinforces this belief and every time it fails is the result of those petty generals undermining him and causing him to fail despite his genius

Hitler went strongly for #2. "If my generals can't attack with their tanks when out of fuel I'll change the generals!"

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 3:26 pm 
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Kameolontti wrote:
wulfir wrote:
...
JDR_Baboon used to hate posts that pointed out Hitler's stupidity. Carry on.


To be fair he had many successes early on, even with France iirc. he overruled his generals and his stance proved out to be right.

So he possibly drew out the conclusion that if he took a gambit against which the generals were warning him and he succeeded that
1) the generals were simply not willing to take huge risks in critical matters and their way too would have prevailed though on that one occasion he was right and they were being too cautious for their own good
2) the generals and general staff don't know shit about shit and whatever idea Hitler comes up with is pure genius that others can't possibly grasp - every time he succeeds with this reinforces this belief and every time it fails is the result of those petty generals undermining him and causing him to fail despite his genius

Hitler went strongly for #2. "If my generals can't attack with their tanks when out of fuel I'll change the generals!"

As for Fall Gelb, Hitler had his fears and stopped panzergruppe Kleist after the initial breakthrough to wait the following infantry formations. He was fearful about the flanks. But allowed recon in force. Guderian said danke and drove to Abbeville.

The second obvious mistake was not to use panzers to close the trap in Dunkirk.

And while Hitler bought Manstein's plan, he did not show anything ingenious at all. Just on the contrary.

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 4:02 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 4:09 pm 
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Ignoring the cautionary words of one's generals when the target of one's ambitions is France could seem like "genius." The invasion of France worked. To understand why it worked one has to consider the confluence of two contingent facts.

1. Blitzgrieg operational plans using mobility and airpower were novel. In 1939-40, the Germans did it better than anyone, largely because they invented it, and were the only ones doing it.

2. France. A prickly nation of self-entitled short people with superiority-inferiority complexes that managed to convince itself that it "won" WW1 by virtue of not surrendering despite the fact that the absence of surrendering was in the end primarily a result of an abundance of Yankees, managed in 1940 to screw up their defense and their counteroffensives to the extent that despite France's use of BETTER armor, better artillery, and more men, the Germans ate their lunch in a bit more than 30 days.

In light of this, the decision to attack France probably was operationally "brilliant" and the Mustacheoed One deserves credit for appreciating the opportunity provided by the confluence of German skills with the flaccid nature of the opponent.

As to 1942-45. No doubt Hitler was a dumbass. But you can't rationally lay all the failures of the Wehrmacht everywhere at the Dictator's feet. The German general staff and intelligence services screwed up plenty of times and with increasing frequency as the war progressed. For example, according to Glantz and Housman, the Italian and Rumanian army commanders attempted on MANY occasions to get Paulus and Von Weichs (Army Group B) to eliminate the Russian bridgeheads over the Don River in August and September 1942. Von Weichs refused. The Italian and Rumanian commanders very specifically requested substantial antitank support because their armies had little of it. Von Weichs refused. As the Stalingrad campaign progressed in October and early November 1942, German units backing the weak Rumanian and Italian units were stripped away and fed into the cauldron of Stalingrad.

Beyond that, there was a lot of intel in early November 1942 indicating the likelihood of a massive Russian counterattack across the Don in the north and Volga in the south, with German 6th Army in the crosshairs. Von Weichs' and Wilhelm List's (Army Group A) response seems to have been something like ... "Pfft. The Russians couldn't mount a successful counterattack even if we told them how to do it. Therefore any Russian counterattack will be contained and destroyed, as we always do."

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Fri May 11, 2018 3:28 pm 
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Kameolontti wrote:
To be fair he had many successes early on...


Not with his art career. :lol:

I don't much care what they say at /pol/ 4chan - Hitler was obviously a full blown grobian. Doubt the Germans would have followed him had WWI not played out they way it did.


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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 9:56 pm 
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Interesting how the YT'er is taking historical documents and adding his own analysis to it.

I think that this can add some worthwhile insight into A) what particular groups thought at a certain point in time (and by extension, what led them to take the actions that they did); B) how well those historical assessments stood the test of time (hindsight).

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 6:30 pm 
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chijohnaok wrote:
[{Snip}

Interesting how the YT'er is taking historical documents and adding his own analysis to it.

I think that this can add some worthwhile insight into A) what particular groups thought at a certain point in time (and by extension, what led them to take the actions that they did); B) how well those historical assessments stood the test of time (hindsight).
Interesting.

Another interesting thought is the German High Command, it's been through two WWs plus, lost both and the allies, the winners, are mimicking it.

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 6:26 am 
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nero wrote:
Kameolontti wrote:
To be fair he had many successes early on, even with France iirc. he overruled his generals and his stance proved out to be right.

So he possibly drew out the conclusion that if he took a gambit against which the generals were warning him and he succeeded that
1) the generals were simply not willing to take huge risks in critical matters and their way too would have prevailed though on that one occasion he was right and they were being too cautious for their own good
2) the generals and general staff don't know shit about shit and whatever idea Hitler comes up with is pure genius that others can't possibly grasp - every time he succeeds with this reinforces this belief and every time it fails is the result of those petty generals undermining him and causing him to fail despite his genius

Hitler went strongly for #2. "If my generals can't attack with their tanks when out of fuel I'll change the generals!"

As for Fall Gelb, Hitler had his fears and stopped panzergruppe Kleist after the initial breakthrough to wait the following infantry formations. He was fearful about the flanks. But allowed recon in force. Guderian said danke and drove to Abbeville.

The second obvious mistake was not to use panzers to close the trap in Dunkirk.

And while Hitler bought Manstein's plan, he did not show anything ingenious at all. Just on the contrary.


This is not mutually exclusive with what I asserted.

1) He didn't listen to his generals and fully respect their opinions.
2) He assumed increasingly micro-managerial attitude early on.
3) Case to case Germany won an amazing victory by contemporary standards either due to or despite his interference.

As in, in some cases he was only throwing brooms between the army's clogs and in other cases he was pushing them beyond the "we would advise against it"-threshold.

As mdiehl points out - the operation to invade France was a major success. As was invasion of Poland and initially it seemed like despite ending up at war with Allies that his decisions were producing great results - their arch enemy France was completely humiliated and they gained massive additions of land to west and east thanks to boldness.

In short term it truly must have seemed like he was this genius being held back by an army of visionless fools and "bean counters".

This is the universal problem with evaluating the performance of high level policy decisions. The timeframe of evaluation and the metrics and lack of comparison.

In modern business world he would have been seen as a great visionary on par with, say, Steve Jobs. He won a lot of stuff and was leading the country to "undreamt" success early on.

In modern business world he would have pulled his exit strategy in late "42 and he would have been fought over since it looked like at the time that he was a great facilitator of good stuff.

And similarly the guy to go after him would have had to live with "oh, by the way, he never actually won UK, he declared wars on USSR and USA on his way out, it's almost winter and our army is built for fighting in summer in central Europe. Good luck!"


As in, we get to see with hindsight that the decisions were absolutely moronic and catastrophic. The man tore the heart out of Europe and burnt it along with half the continent!

I was pointing out to the psychological reasons why he must have felt as he did - why he felt that he was better off micromanaging things and overruling his own generals, the people who were professionals and the country's leading experts on how to wage war.

I've known people who in business had this mindset - they had done something at some point that was successful, perhaps despite how they managed it and perhaps more due to the macro idea being in right place at right time.

So they draw the conclusion that their micromanagement was the success factor rather than sheer luck and macro vision and then they bring this micromanagement attitude wherever they go with them, overruling more knowledgeable people to the extent of never having flown an hour and climbing to the jet's cockpit to instruct the captain on "want a good heading, I'd pick heading 230 and altitude on 28k feet, by the way, re-check the pressure of hydraulics, I've got a gut feeling about the hydraulics".

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 6:32 am 
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wulfir wrote:
Kameolontti wrote:
To be fair he had many successes early on...


Not with his art career. :lol:

I don't much care what they say at /pol/ 4chan - Hitler was obviously a full blown grobian. Doubt the Germans would have followed him had WWI not played out they way it did.


Not only the legacy of WW I and the humiliation of Germany, blaming of Germany for the entire war that they did escalate but didn't really start.

And not forgetting the fear of communists and the long historic prejudices and racism in Germany. When Einstein was studying in Germany the teacher literally brought rusty nails to the classroom and said "these are the kind of nails the Jews used to crucify our Savior".

The situation in Germany was ripe to be taken advantage of by a man such as Hitler.

Hitler did have skill and talent, that is without a doubt. Just like you can't organize a series of bank robberies or create a human trafficking ring without skill and talent, you can't rise to lead a country without skill and talent - genius even.

This is what a lot of people get wrong. Do not fear the idiots. Fear the insane who has terrifying level of mastery of manipulation and other skills.

Motive is the multiplier used to determine the utility of skill. Thus an evil motive yields a high negative utility and a good motive yields a high utility for a person with great skill. Hence skilled and otherwise virtuous criminals are the worst.

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 Post subject: Re: Military stuff ... past and present.
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Kameolontti wrote:
wulfir wrote:

JDR_Baboon used to hate posts that pointed out Hitler's stupidity. Carry on.


To be fair he had many successes early on, even with France iirc. he overruled his generals and his stance proved out to be right.

So he possibly drew out the conclusion that if he took a gambit against which the generals were warning him and he succeeded that
1) the generals were simply not willing to take huge risks in critical matters and their way too would have prevailed though on that one occasion he was right and they were being too cautious for their own good
2) the generals and general staff don't know shit about shit and whatever idea Hitler comes up with is pure genius that others can't possibly grasp - every time he succeeds with this reinforces this belief and every time it fails is the result of those petty generals undermining him and causing him to fail despite his genius

Hitler went strongly for #2. "If my generals can't attack with their tanks when out of fuel I'll change the generals!"


Not sure if it is true or not, but supposedly at some point in 1942-ish it became the standing policy of the Western allies (if not all the allies) to NOT try to assassinate Hitler, simply because he was the best thing the allies had going.

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