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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:45 pm 
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jack t ripper wrote:
112 F at my house today. 5 miles from the Pacific Ocean :lol: :lol:

It was only 70 this morning. I opened up the house last night, closed things up about 7:30 and it was 81 inside when I got home 6 hrs later.

31 degree gradient with the outside without AC. Impressive.

42 degree rise in exterior temp in 6 1/2 hrs......damn!


You could cool your heels where I am in Tampa Bay, where its only 89F right now, with 55% humidity and a "Feels LIke" temp of 96.

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:43 am 
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It maxed out at 114 yesterday. That may be the hottest temperature I have ever been in. It was f****** hot. At 7:30 PM it was still 107.

I took the dog out for a walk at 7:30 and we stayed in the shade. She had cabin fever and wanted to keep going but at about 1/2 mile I finally pulled on her chain and we headed back and then she hit the wall. I had to carry her the last 200 yds. Dumbass animal.

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:52 am 
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117 in Van Nuys (San Fernando Valley). The place is a complete armpit even when the weather is nice. :lol:

121 in Death Valley, which was NOT a record.

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:27 pm 
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Dust from the Sahara lowers Caribbean hurricane strength. I thought we were all going to die? Funny, it's almost as if climate doomsday has been postponed.

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:50 am 
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jack t ripper wrote:
Dust from the Sahara lowers Caribbean hurricane strength. I thought we were all going to die? Funny, it's almost as if climate doomsday has been postponed.

Image


I bet Trump is responsible . . . somehow . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:39 am 
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A new storm popped up:

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:08 pm 
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There is also Hurricane Florence out in the Atlantic:

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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:09 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:33 pm 
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0856.shtml

Quote:
Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products

545
WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible
and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.
Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets
to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all
T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are
T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also
warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped
upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii
had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.

The initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,
the global and regional models have done a good job capturing the
evolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an
amplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,
which is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.
and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates
that the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing
to build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.

During the next 24 hours or so, Florence is expected to remain in a
very favorable environment consisting of low shear near 5 kt, an
expanding upper-level outflow pattern, and above-average SSTs of
29.0-29.5 deg C, which should result in additional strengthening.
By 48 h, the decreasing forward speed along with the large
inner-core wind field should induce some upwelling and gradual
weakening. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models
are indicating an increase in the southwesterly shear to near 20 kt,
this could be due to the SHIPS model capturing Florence's own
strong outflow from the GFS and ECMWF model fields. Despite the
weakening shown at 72 hours, Florence is still expected to remain a
dangerous hurricane through landfall. After Florence moves inland,
the slow forward speed of less than 5 kt should cause a rapid spin
down and weakening of the hurricane's circulation. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the highest guidance based on
the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to
maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.5N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.4N 76.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 34.5N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1800Z 35.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Season 2018
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:38 pm 
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https://apnews.com/c04474fc26d344c99ace ... -Carolinas

Quote:



‘Big and vicious’: Hurricane Florence closes in on Carolinas

By JONATHAN DREW


WILMINGTON, N.C. (AP) — Motorists streamed inland on highways converted to one-way evacuation routes Tuesday as about 1.7 million people in three states were warned to get out of the way of Hurricane Florence, a hair-raising storm taking dead aim at the Carolinas with 140 mph (225 kph) winds and potentially ruinous rains.

Florence was expected to blow ashore late Thursday or early Friday, then slow down and wring itself out for days, unloading 1 to 2½ feet (0.3 to 0.6 meters) of rain that could cause flooding well inland and wreak environmental havoc by washing over industrial waste sites and hog farms.


Forecasters and politicians pleaded with the public to take the warnings seriously and minced no words in describing the threat.

“This storm is a monster. It’s big and it’s vicious. It is an extremely, dangerous, life-threatening, historic hurricane,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said.

He added: “The waves and the wind this storm may bring is nothing like you’ve ever seen. Even if you’ve ridden out storms before, this one is different. Don’t bet your life on riding out a monster.”

Some hoped for divine intervention.

“I’m prayed up and as ready as I can get,” Steven Hendrick said as he filled up gasoline cans near Conway, South Carolina.

More than 5.4 million people live in areas under hurricane warnings or watches on the U.S. East Coast, according to the National Weather Service, and another 4 million people were under a tropical storm watch.

President Donald Trump declared states of emergency for North and South Carolina and Virginia, opening the way for federal aid. He said the federal government is “absolutely, totally prepared” for Florence.

All three states ordered mass evacuations along the coast. But getting out of harm’s way could prove difficult.

Florence is so wide that a life-threatening storm surge was being pushed 300 miles (485 kilometers) ahead of its eye, and so wet that a swath from South Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania could get deluged.

People across the region rushed to buy bottled water and other supplies, board up their homes, pull their boats out of the water and get out of town.

A line of heavy traffic moved away from the coast on Interstate 40, the main route between the port city of Wilmington and inland Raleigh. Between the two cities, about two hours apart, the traffic flowed smoothly in places and became gridlocked in others because of fender-benders.

Only a trickle of vehicles was going in the opposite direction, including pickup trucks carrying plywood and other building materials.

Long lines formed at service stations, and some started running out of gas as far west as Raleigh, with bright yellow bags, signs or rags placed over the pumps to show they were out of order. Some store shelves were picked clean.

“There’s no water. There’s no juices. There’s no canned goods,” Kristin Harrington said as she shopped at a Walmart in Wilmington.

At 8 p.m., the storm was centered 725 miles (1,165 km) southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, moving at 17 mph (28 kph). It was a potentially catastrophic Category 4 storm but was expected to keep drawing energy from the warm water and intensify to near Category 5, which means winds of 157 mph (253 kph) or higher.

Florence is the most dangerous of three tropical systems in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Isaac was east of the Lesser Antilles and expected to pass south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, while Hurricane Helene was moving northward away from land. Forecasters also were tracking two other disturbances.

The coastal surge from Florence could leave the eastern tip of North Carolina under more than 9 feet (2.75 meters) of water in spots, projections showed.

“This one really scares me,” National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham said.

Federal officials begged residents to put together emergency kits and have a plan on where to go.

“This storm is going to knock out power days into weeks. It’s going to destroy infrastructure. It’s going to destroy homes,” said Jeff Byard, an official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Forecasters said parts of North Carolina could get 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain, if not more, with as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters) elsewhere in the state and in Virginia, parts of Maryland and Washington, D.C.

One trusted computer model, the European simulation, predicted more than 45 inches (115 centimeters) in parts of North Carolina. A year ago, people would have laughed off such a forecast, but the European model was accurate in predicting 60 inches (150 centimeters) for Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, so “you start to wonder what these models know that we don’t,” University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy said.

Rain measured in feet is “looking likely,” he said.

The storm forced people to cut their vacations short along the coast.

Paula Matheson of Springfield, Oregon, got the full Southern experience during her 10-week RV vacation: hot weather, good food, beautiful beaches and, finally, a hurricane evacuation.

Florence interrupted her stay on North Carolina’s Outer Banks. It took Matheson and her husband nearly the whole day Monday to drive the 60 miles (100 kilometers) off the barrier island .

“It was so beautiful. The water was fabulous. Eighty-five degrees,” Matheson said, pausing a moment. “I guess that’s a big part of the problem.”

Florence’s projected path includes half a dozen nuclear power plants, pits holding coal-ash and other industrial waste, and numerous hog farms that store animal waste in huge lagoons.

Duke Energy spokesman Ryan Mosier said operators would begin shutting down nuclear plants at least two hours before hurricane-force winds arrive.

North Carolina’s governor issued what he called a first-of-its-kind mandatory evacuation order for North Carolina’s fragile barrier islands from one end of the coast to the other. Typically, local governments in North Carolina make the call on evacuations.

“We’ve seen nor’easters and we’ve seen hurricanes before,” Cooper said, “but this one is different.”

___

Associated Press writers Seth Borenstein in Washington; Jennifer Kay in Miami; Gary Robertson in Raleigh, North Carolina; Jeffrey Collins in Latta, South Carolina; Meg Kinnard in Columbia, South Carolina; Jeff Martin and Jay Reeves in Atlanta; and Tamara Lush in St. Petersburg, Florida, contributed to this report.

___

For the latest on Hurricane Florence, visit https://www.apnews.com/tag/Hurricanes .


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