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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:53 pm 
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Yes...that sounds like aerospace. My dad worked for NAFI (Navy), Ford Aerospace, ITT, Aerojet. Brother works for Boeing. Another brother works for Morton-Thiokol.

Every new technological innovation means the military wants an "upgrade" ...but the new chip develops too much heat so you need a new heat sink so you need a new pump so you need a new generator so you need a bigger booster blah...blah blah...pretty soon the "upgrade" adds $42 M to the unit cost with a 50% reduction in Mean Time Before Failure and you need 3 engineers from each subcontractor to fix something but first they have to consult with the PhD at the home office and meantime everyone goes out to a strip club to keep the Admiral happy.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:58 pm 
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jwilkerson wrote:
...
Extended design cycle syndrome.

When the design cycle of a widget gets to be long enough, the requirements change before it can get finished. So it never really gets finished. Yes at some point it sort of works. But the requirements are still changing. So you wind up with a steady state where parts of the system were designed to different requirements than other parts of the system and you pay the consequences.

The solution is to ruthlessly control the requirements to shorten the design cycle and accept widgets that are "good enough" ... and not demand widgets that are "perfect".

I have been in SW development last 40 years. In the beginning it was quite easy when I was to sole architect, designer and coder. I did not get any requirement creep, it the other way round. I was inventing thing and asking the project owner would he like this. He usually liked. :mrgreen:

But later on I went to work biggish medical equipment producer, market leader in anesthesia system monitors. I took some time to realize that the architecture was a catastrophe, and the code was just abysmal. At the start I was think that they must know something I din't know. But anyway the architecture was based on the ideas of Schaer Mellor object oriented system analysis. Yeah, nothing wrong with having each measurement having an active subsystem that receives messages from measurement modules and send messages to display data. But having some 96 (I counted) threads, each having its own priority level was a colossal design error. The first result was that the math processor could not be used because the time spent during the context switches to save and restore math processor data. So they had developed a SW version of floating point, but a very slow and hard to use one. That was my 90's. A man with one eye is a king among the blind.

But is all waterfall and project manager micromanaging. And all depended on the project manager. A smart one was a friend, a stupid one a pain in the ass. A reason to seek another employer.

But later on 2010's in another company, agile methods were introduced. Even I was exited, empowered team, real team work without project manager micromanagement. The end of waterfall.

But shit happens. A team with too many externals is not a team but a foreign legion. And the legionnaires obey the sergeant, the project owner. And the message is always: during this sprint we take the risk and make the quick. Sprint after sprint. That created so much design debt that the big ball of mud was rolled up. When that stage was achieved all hope is lost.

    Half a league, half a league,
    Half a league onward,
    All in the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    “Forward, the Light Brigade!
    Charge for the guns!” he said.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.

I have seen that, too many times.

But the back to the point, changing requirements can be harmful if the framework is too rigid. Like a nuclear power station the French Areva is building in Olkiluoto Finland. Though the requirements have not been changed at all, and thing should have been ready 2009. Perhaps the thing will start working during this century, I hope.

My point is that with proper software platform changes in requirements are not only absorbed but welcomed. Especially when you have to change the metadata but not the code.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:41 pm 
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Maybe this is a blessing in disguise, accept the fact that the F22 isn't viable, continue to use it until it's gone.

Start a fresh, learn from the mistakes and build a cheaper, more maintainable model. Like the Japanese developed a cloaking device for their Shin-Shin.



About 4:20 on it's mentioned.

Why a cloaking device rather then the goo they coat the US stealth units with, it's advantage is greater than Mach 2 stealth, the goo used now starts peeling off above Mach 2.

Sort of like pre WW2 when we went thru several tank versions and finally entered the war with the M4.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:11 pm 
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Regarding Tyndall and the F-22s:

https://warisboring.com/hurricane-micha ... -of-f-22s/

Quote:
Hurricane Michael Damaged a Bunch of F-22s

The stealth fighters were unflyable and could not escape the storm



October 16, 2018 David Axe

U.S. Air Force65

Hurricane Michael damaged potentially more than a dozen U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters at their base on the Florida panhandle on Oct. 10.

That’s nearly 10 percent the Air Force’s F-22s. And if Japan’s own recent experience is any indication, it could take the flying branch years to recover from the loss of so many planes — even if the loss is temporary.

Hurricane Michael struck northwest Florida as a category-four storm. As it roared across the state’s panhandle region, the storm flattened whole towns and killed at least 18 people.

Tyndall Air Force Base, the main training facility for the Air Force’s 183-strong F-22 force, lay directly in the hurricane’s path. Prior to the storm, the base housed 55 Raptors. Tyndall’s wing includes several training units and one combat-ready F-22 squadron that has flown combat missions over Syria.

Hurricane Michael Damaged a Bunch of F-22s
The stealth fighters were unflyable and could not escape the storm

Hurricane Michael Damaged a Bunch of F-22s

WIB AIR October 16, 2018 David Axe

U.S. Air Force65
Hurricane Michael damaged potentially more than a dozen U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters at their base on the Florida panhandle on Oct. 10.


That’s nearly 10 percent the Air Force’s F-22s. And if Japan’s own recent experience is any indication, it could take the flying branch years to recover from the loss of so many planes — even if the loss is temporary.



ADVERTISING

Hurricane Michael struck northwest Florida as a category-four storm. As it roared across the state’s panhandle region, the storm flattened whole towns and killed at least 18 people.

Tyndall Air Force Base, the main training facility for the Air Force’s 183-strong F-22 force, lay directly in the hurricane’s path. Prior to the storm, the base housed 55 Raptors. Tyndall’s wing includes several training units and one combat-ready F-22 squadron that has flown combat missions over Syria.


At least 33 of the radar-evading jets evacuated to Ohio in the days before the storm made landfall. Some of the others were unflyable and remained at Tyndall along with the base’s “stay-behind” staff, who moved grounded aircraft into hangars, closed the doors and hoped for the best.

The unflyable jets reportedly included one that suffered a mechanical problem while attempting to take off on its evacuation flight to Ohio. Many of the others were grounded because they were missing key spare parts.

The Air Force routinely “cannibalizes” a portion of its planes, stripping them of parts in order to keep others flightworthy. As of March, Air Force statistics indicated just half of the Raptors were “mission-capable,” Air Force Times reported. The rest had been cannibalized, were grounded for repairs or lacked key upgrades for frontline duty.


The storm’s winds, which peaked at 150 miles per hour, damaged every hangar at Tyndall, The New York Times reported. Photos that appeared online showed hangars missing roof panels — and the distinctive shapes of F-22s inside the wrecked structures.

Crews quickly began assessing the damage. “What I can say is that today is a better day than yesterday, and things are going to keep getting better,” Col. Brian Laidlaw, commander of the base’s 325th Fighter Wing, stated on Oct. 13. “Each day we recover more of Tyndall Air Force Base.”

The storm damaged as many as 17 F-22s, Foreign Policy reporter Lara Seligman tweeted on Oct. 14. U.S. taxpayers paid around $380 million apiece, including development costs, for a total of 195 F-22s. Several of the twin-engine jets have crashed. The Air Force has retired a few examples that mostly flew test flights.

For years the Air Force insisted it required 381 F-22s, a figure that the service said would allow it to fully equip frontline squadrons while also letting it keep some planes in “attrition reserve” to replace destroyed jets.

But to save money Robert Gates, then the secretary of defense, ended F-22 production in 2011 after Lockheed Martin had built just half as many jets as the Air Force said it needed.

Now there are no extra Raptors, Dave Deptula, a retired Air Force general, told The Daily Beast. “No F-22s bought for attrition reserve means every one lost negates our combat capability.”

The Air Force has indicated that some or all of the Raptors that stayed behind at Tyndall are repairable. “Our maintenance professionals will do a detailed assessment of the F-22 Raptors and other aircraft before we can say with certainty that damaged aircraft can be repaired and sent back into the skies,” Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein and Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force Kaleth Wright said in a joint statement on Oct. 15. “However, damage was less than we feared and preliminary indications are promising.”

But the Air Force has long explained that even 183 Raptors is too few, at a time when China is also developing its own stealth fighters. “We don’t have enough F-22s,” Gen. Herbert Carlisle, then the head of the Air Force’s Air Combat Command, said in 2015.

Three years later, China is steadily expanding its own force of J-20 stealth fighters and the U.S. Air Force could be down to as few as 166 F-22s, at least temporarily.

And even a short-term reduction in the number of flyable F-22s could have long-term implications. The Air Force is struggling to both grow its total number of squadrons from 312 to 386 in order to keep pace with China and to erase a 2,000-pilot shortfall by training more aircrew, an effort that requires more training flights.

At the same time, Defense Secretary James Mattis has ordered the armed forces to boost fighter readiness to 80 percent by September 2019. The F-22 force, accustomed to keeping just half of its planes mission-ready, could struggle to improve its overall flightworthiness while also repairing wind- and water-damaged planes.

This year the Air Force devoted 25,000 man-hours to restoring to flight status a single F-22 test jet that the service had put into storage in 2012. Fixing each of Tyndall’s planes could require similar effort. Air Force Secretary Wilson recently ruled out paying Lockheed Martin billions of dollars to restart Raptor production.

Japan has suffered through a similar crisis. The tsunami that struck Japan in 2011 flooded an air force training base, inundating 18 of the Japanese air arm’s 98 high-tech F-2 fighters. The country spent $800 million repairing 13 of the planes, finally fixing the last jet in February after a seven-year effort.

While working on the water-damaged jets, the Japanese air force had to relocate its training efforts to Arizona. Tokyo also accelerated a multi-billion-dollar program to design and build a new fighter, in part to compensate for the sudden loss of F-2s.

The F-22 is a more sophisticated and delicate aircraft than the F-2 is. Repairing even a few storm-damaged F-22s could cost billions of dollars, require years of work and hold back the Air Force’s efforts to grow and improve its readiness.


Sounds as if the Air Force has its work cut out for it.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:25 pm 
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Sounds like they're ready for the scrap heap - not worth fixing the dang things ...

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:39 pm 
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jwilkerson wrote:
Sounds like they're ready for the scrap heap - not worth fixing the dang things ...




I suppose the worst case scenario for those damaged planes is that their parts will be stripped in order to keep the rest of the fleet flying. :(

At $150 million a copy the ONLY portion of those planes that I want to see end up in the scrap heap is the evergreen-scented air freshener that the pilot hung in the cockpit.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:44 pm 
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I know that Japan was interested in acquiring F-22s but Congress had placed a prohibition on that.

At this point I think serious consideration should be given to allowing Japan F-22s---either with them paying for a production line to be reopened in the US, OR for a new F-22 production line to be built in Japan. Either way, it would mean that new parts were being manufactured, which would mean spare parts would again become more accessible for repairing existing F-22s.

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:29 am 
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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:55 pm 
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If all else fails there's

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 Post subject: Re: PROBLEMS IN CHINA
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:40 pm 
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Quote:
Military Times
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your ... eral-says/
News

© 2018 Sightline Media Group

Flashpoints
US war with China is likely in 15 years, retired general says
By: Vanessa Gera, The Associated Press   3 hours ago
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A Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force Su-30 fighter, right, flies with a H-6K bomber during a drill near the East China Sea in September 2016. The U.S. has a "very strong likelihood" of being at war with China in 15 years, says retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. (Shao Jing/Xinhua via AP, File)

WARSAW, Poland — The former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe says it’s likely the United States will be at war with China in 15 years.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said at a Warsaw security forum on Wednesday that European allies will have to do more to ensure their own defenses against Russia as Americans focus more on the Pacific.
Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges speaks to reporters on the sideline of the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland, Wednesday Oct. 24, 2018. Hodges, who was U.S. Army commander in Europe from 2014-17, told the forum that it's likely but not inevitable that the United States will be at war with China in 15 years. (AP Photo/Vanessa Gera)
Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges speaks to reporters on the sideline of the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland, Wednesday Oct. 24, 2018. Hodges, who was U.S. Army commander in Europe from 2014-17, told the forum that it's likely but not inevitable that the United States will be at war with China in 15 years. (AP Photo/Vanessa Gera)

Hodges said: "I think in 15 years — it's not inevitable, but it is a very strong likelihood — that we will be at war with China. The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat."

Hodges, now with the Center for European Policy Analysis, was U.S. Army commander in Europe during 2014-17.
15 years, that should give us time to prepare.

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