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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:37 am 
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There can't be anything like GWI in Korea. The guy has possibly 120 nukes and VX and probably biologic agents. He is not bluffing like the idiot Saddam. The NRK would be destroyed but so might a major world city.

Now...MAYBE...a complete, all out surprise attack might catch their major platforms on the ground but there are numerous asymmetrical ways (infiltration tunnels, subs, fast attack boats, bombers, balloons) they could get a nuke to Seoul and they would also have artillery deliverable VX...not to mention one study I saw suggested they could deliver 100,000 conventional artillery rounds on Seoul in 24 hrs.

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:52 am 
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jack t ripper wrote:
There can't be anything like GWI in Korea. The guy has possibly 120 nukes and VX and probably biologic agents. He is not bluffing like the idiot Saddam. The NRK would be destroyed but so might a major world city.

Now...MAYBE...a complete, all out surprise attack might catch their major platforms on the ground but there are numerous asymmetrical ways (infiltration tunnels, subs, fast attack boats, bombers, balloons) they could get a nuke to Seoul and they would also have artillery deliverable VX...not to mention one study I saw suggested they could deliver 100,000 conventional artillery rounds on Seoul in 24 hrs.


Well if they are as "unbeatable" as that, and the cost to beat them is so high, then I guess our only option is to comply with whatever they demand.
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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:09 am 
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Nope...you do exactly what Trump is doing. Ratchet up the sanctions and international pressure until they buckle even if it means starvation for the average poor bastard in the PRK. You have the CIA do whatever they can to encourage someone over there to cap the stupid cunt.

If they start a shooting war, you hit back with literally everything we have..including a metal with an atomic weight of 239

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:47 pm 
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jack t ripper wrote:
Nope...you do exactly what Trump is doing. Ratchet up the sanctions and international pressure until they buckle even if it means starvation for the average poor bastard in the PRK. You have the CIA do whatever they can to encourage someone over there to cap the stupid cunt.

If they start a shooting war, you hit back with literally everything we have..including a metal with an atomic weight of 239


Not an "easy" play. But I will admit, if there is one deal maker who might be able to pull it off, it is Trump.

A deal that locked them down, duped them into thinking they were getting what they (meaning Kim) want, and set in motion the slow-motion strangulation of the regime would be a move Sun Tzu would admire and would even top the brilliant response of Bush/Schwarzkopf in 1991.

All I'm saying is: the ONLY satisfactory end game (whether that is next month or next decade) is one in which DPRK is no longer ruled by a totalitarianism that makes most totalitarianisms look like a group therapy session.

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:13 pm 
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Anthropoid wrote:
Not all wars are planned, orchestrated and executed with equivalent brilliance.

Another Operation Iraqi Freedom, or War in Afghanistan we do not need.

A Korean Peninsula analogue of the 1991 Gulf War would do wonders.



A primary difference though is that the NK/SK border is about the most heavily mined/fortified border in the world. That is very different from where Schwartzkopf launched his end around from. You do not have the opportunity of an end around like Schwartzkopf did...unless you pull a MacArthur “Inchon”somewhere.

And whereas you had flat deserts in Iraq for rapid armored/mechanized thrust Korea is very mountainous. That changes your strategy and again reduces the possibility for rapid thrust like in the 1991 Gulf War.

I’m not saying that we couldn’t do it (starting off my bombing the shit out of them) but you’d be bombing a nation back into the Stone Age that is already 90% of the way there. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:42 pm 
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chijohnaok wrote:
Anthropoid wrote:
Not all wars are planned, orchestrated and executed with equivalent brilliance.

Another Operation Iraqi Freedom, or War in Afghanistan we do not need.

A Korean Peninsula analogue of the 1991 Gulf War would do wonders.



A primary difference though is that the NK/SK border is about the most heavily mined/fortified border in the world. That is very different from where Schwartzkopf launched his end around from. You do not have the opportunity of an end around like Schwartzkopf did...unless you pull a MacArthur “Inchon”somewhere.

And whereas you had flat deserts in Iraq for rapid armored/mechanized thrust Korea is very mountainous. That changes your strategy and again reduces the possibility for rapid thrust like in the 1991 Gulf War.

I’m not saying that we couldn’t do it (starting off my bombing the shit out of them) but you’d be bombing a nation back into the Stone Age that is already 90% of the way there. :lol:


I suspect it could be done without the complete obliteration of that entire corner of the world (Korean peninsula, etc.). In fact, I expect that plans for HOW to do it are in place by now. I suspect that a long family of such plans have been in existence since 1952 or 1953, and that they get tweaked and revised on a regular basis.

Most likely, the risks of (a) unacceptably high casualties; or (b) expansion into war between China-U.S. are the main concerns. "Not succeeding" in taking out Kim is unlikely a primary concern. We have ample firepower to reduce the entire country to a parking lot. But any U.S. leader who did it might well commit political suicide, and/or wind up being called by hysterics for "war crimes."

Trump will be in a better position to force an acceleration on the end of the Kim dynasty after November 2020. Either he wins a second term and has nothing to lose or he loses the election and has nothing to lose. The benefit of "negotiations" at this time is: (c) Trump can be seen to be conciliatory even though he may not be in anyway; (d) give Kim that little bit more rope he needs to hang himself and enough time between Dec 2018 and Nov 2020 for him to demonstrate his lack of earnest, if not outright duplicity.

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:42 pm 
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I have no doubt that we have lots of plans.

Generals and armies always have plans.

The Civil War was supposed to last a few months.

WW1 the troops were going to be home by Christmas.

And the 2003 Iraq War (itself) was short but the "peace" (occupation) was alot longer than anyone expected.

And yes, "
Most likely, the risks of (a) unacceptably high casualties; or (b) expansion into war between China-U.S. are the main concerns."

Another wild card: How cooperative are the South Koreans going to be for a US military operation there?
I have no doubt that should NK attack the South, that the SK government and military would be on board.
But if it comes down to the US wanting to take preemptive action against NK, should Kim either refuse to a deal, or agree to one but not comply as NK has multiple times in the past, how supportive is South Korea going to be for US preemptive action?

In any offensive/preemptive action against them you would (logistically) have to have the cooperation of the South.
I'm not sure that you would have the SK government's buy in. And after watching several interviews that Tim Pool did last year with South Korean citizens (young ones--20s), the impression that I got is that NK is like their 'crazy uncle'; they roll their eyes at him, and generally try to ignore him but they don't seem to perceive of Kim and NK as some existential threat that needs to be dealt with by military force. Having a wavering SK government and resistance/lack of support from the SK population is not conducive to any sort of preemptive action by the US.

Taking out Kim may end up being the least of our problems (should we find ourselves entangled with the Chinese and others)

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:56 pm 
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chijohnaok wrote:
I'm not sure that you would have the SK government's buy in. And after watching several interviews that Tim Pool did last year with South Korean citizens (young ones--20s), the impression that I got is that NK is like their 'crazy uncle'; they roll their eyes at him, and generally try to ignore him but they don't seem to perceive of Kim and NK as some existential threat that needs to be dealt with by military force. Having a wavering SK government and resistance/lack of support from the SK population is not conducive to any sort of preemptive action by the US.


I also keep being reminded of Tim's interviews with South Koreans regarding Best Korea™. How they seemed generally unconcerned about the DPRK's constant threats, even despite regular hostile skirmishes over the years.

Wasn't sure if they were just the usual young naive urbanite types or whether the vast majority of South Koreans didn't really care.

While I tend to think they were naive to some extent, I also don't think the Norks are going to be initiating any hostilities anytime soon. Kim & the DPRK obviously know what little they have left would get dusted. Self preservation is the strongest instinct after all.

No need to rush anything. MAD has proven, time and again, that it's a very real deterrent. The Norks are obviously aware of this. Now they're just looking to sell assurances again. But we don't really need to buy any. Advantage = us.

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:33 am 
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Seems the Norks want a peace treaty...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... orts-video

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 Post subject: Re: North Korea, big news per FNC
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:39 pm 
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Lava wrote:
Seems the Norks want a peace treaty...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... orts-video



8-)

Roughly 65 years since then end of the Korean War and Trump might achieve something that no other president in that time span was able to achieve (a piece treaty with North Korea).

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