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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:56 am 
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EUBanana wrote:
jack t ripper wrote:
It's the 21st century version of a loaf of bread and free passes to the Circus Maximus....on steroids

The problem is Caesar is Berlin will not approve.

Sometimes voters will forgive a candidate his unrealistic promise if he appears genuine and can blame it on opposing forces. Eg., Trump and his border wall.


Perhaps it will further poison the relationship between Italy and the EU/Germany. I guess that's a good thing ultimately from my PoV (EU delenda est ;) ).

But in the EU or not this doesn't strike me as sensible policy for Italy, a country suffering from economic malaise. Canada and Finland can get away with this sort of experimentation because they have the money to throw around, Italy does not. And if things are shit a bunch of guys promising the moon on a stick is not a real solution.

I fear they will end up giving the various anti-EU forces a bad name when it all goes south.



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I fear they will end up giving the various anti-EU forces a bad name when it all goes south.

That may be, and I have no doubt that the pro-EU parties will portray it that way....but you are talking about Italy, where the average length of a government over the last 7 decades is barely more than 1 year.

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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:32 am 
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chijohnaok wrote:
That may be, and I have no doubt that the pro-EU parties will portray it that way....but you are talking about Italy, where the average length of a government over the last 7 decades is barely more than 1 year.


You can kinda see why if this sort of behaviour is the norm in Italian politics.

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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:38 am 
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EUBanana wrote:
chijohnaok wrote:
That may be, and I have no doubt that the pro-EU parties will portray it that way....but you are talking about Italy, where the average length of a government over the last 7 decades is barely more than 1 year.


You can kinda see why if this sort of behaviour is the norm in Italian politics.

It is sure that the coalition has many weaknesses, one of them is its heterogeneity. As we say here in France, it is the marriage between carp and rabbit. So, with the first difficulties, it could explode. One of them will be the confrontation with EU. We see it with Greece or even with Great Britain, those confrontations are violent, and the EU makes no gift, and is ready to do anything it can to punish the one who tries to go against the treaties.

I doubt that the current coalition will be able to break the EU or the eurozone, it is not strong enough.


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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:45 am 
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LaPalice wrote:
I doubt that the current coalition will be able to break the EU or the eurozone, it is not strong enough.


Certainly the EU acts more like the empire it wants to be rather than the free association of nations it used to pretend it was. It is it's own centre of power now and it acts as it's own independent actor.

The Italians will need a strong government if they want to move even slightly away from EU policy, the EU will just flat out refuse any negotiating like they always do.

Maybe the Italians will do better, I can imagine them simply ignoring any EU rules they don't like, and the EU not having the courage to call the bluff, just like they do with Eastern Europe. Britain is too rule abiding and the civil service too pro-EU to not play ball like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:10 pm 
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EUBanana wrote:
LaPalice wrote:
I doubt that the current coalition will be able to break the EU or the eurozone, it is not strong enough.


Certainly the EU acts more like the empire it wants to be rather than the free association of nations it used to pretend it was. It is it's own centre of power now and it acts as it's own independent actor.

The Italians will need a strong government if they want to move even slightly away from EU policy, the EU will just flat out refuse any negotiating like they always do.

Maybe the Italians will do better, I can imagine them simply ignoring any EU rules they don't like, and the EU not having the courage to call the bluff, just like they do with Eastern Europe. Britain is too rule abiding and the civil service too pro-EU to not play ball like that.

Yes, Italy has an advantage, it is too big to fail, and the UE is not a strong state, able to dictate its decision to a country as big as Italy if the Italians decide to do what they want. The only possibility that the EU would have to impose its will would be that people with enough power in Italy were ready to do whatever they can to please the EU institutions and other European partners, as we can see it with what Matarella did some days ago. So, as long as the leaders of the coalition don't do like Tsipras in Greece, the EU is disarmed.

I read an article saying that the leaders of the coalition are intelligent enough not to say that they want to leave the eurozone, because if they did that, there would be strong attacks on Italy on the financial markets and Italy would not be able to resist to those attacks. What they want to do, it seems, is to say to the Italian central bank to print money, with the consequence of weakening euro, which is good for the Italian economy. The problem is that Germany will never accept a weak currency, so the consequence would be that Germany, not Italy, leave the eurozone.


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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:24 am 
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LaPalice wrote:
... so the consequence would be that Germany, not Italy, leave the eurozone.


Sounds like a win to me!

The quicker they leave, the faster the rest of Europe can recover from their disastrous macroeconomics and cultural suicidal foreign policy.

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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:42 am 
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Lava wrote:
LaPalice wrote:
... so the consequence would be that Germany, not Italy, leave the eurozone.


Sounds like a win to me!

The quicker they leave, the faster the rest of Europe can recover from their disastrous macroeconomics and cultural suicidal foreign policy.

The only question is to know if the Italian coalition will hold under the pressure, because this one will be strong, coming from Germany and from France, among others. I don't bet on the Italians this time. Fine if I am wrong.

But those elections, and the coalition that emerged from it, already have a good result: Macron's dreams of a more federalist Europe, particularly the eurozone, are almost dead.


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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:01 pm 
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Wow. I can't get over LP's evolution in thinking over time. 8-) He's become a Libertarian. Huzzah!

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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:11 pm 
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jack t ripper wrote:
Wow. I can't get over LP's evolution in thinking over time. 8-) He's become a Libertarian. Huzzah!

Well, I don't think that I am a libetarian. I might be one on the cultural or social level, I don't know. But, economically, I remain a leftist. I like Trump, if I had to choose between him and Hilary, I would pick him without any doubt. But I would have chosen Sanders in the first time.


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 Post subject: Re: Italian election explained
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:48 pm 
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LaPalice wrote:
jack t ripper wrote:
Wow. I can't get over LP's evolution in thinking over time. 8-) He's become a Libertarian. Huzzah!

Well, I don't think that I am a libetarian. I might be one on the cultural or social level, I don't know. But, economically, I remain a leftist. I like Trump, if I had to choose between him and Hilary, I would pick him without any doubt. But I would have chosen Sanders in the first time.


I think that Sanders means well (and he probably believes all the things that he is saying) but I'm not sure how much success that he would have had in charge of the United States.

While it seems that he did OK as the Mayor of Burlington, VT (a community of 42,000 people) running a country of 326 million is something entirely different. We do know successful Sanders wife was in running Burlington College into the ground

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