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 Post subject: U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:47 am 
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http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/2017- ... perts-warn

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Posted October 10, 2017 05:21 pm - Updated October 11, 2017 12:06 am
By Tom Corwin Staff Writer

U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn

As the U.S. begins its annual flu season, experts warn that the country is ill-prepared for a pandemic flu that could cause widespread disruption and death.


In a webinar Tuesday with the Association of Health Care Journalists, flu experts outlined potential problems that will occur if and when there is another flu pandemic. Those occur when there is a large mutation in the current circulating flu viruses that it is unlike previous strains or the emergence of a wholly new kind of strain, often from one that jumps from animals like chickens or pigs to humans, said Dr. Sonja Olsen, deputy chief of the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in the Flu Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Since 2013, the CDC has been monitoring an avian influenza strain called H7N9 that has caused some human infections, increasing from 135 cases to 759 in the last season that ended in August. About 70 percent of those patients ended up in intensive care units and 40 percent died, she said. However, the virus has not shown yet it can pass very well from human to human, Olsen said.

In an analysis published in recent months, scientists looked carefully at the virus strain and tried to see if it could be made to create certain mutations that would make it more adaptable to humans, known as “gain of function” studies, she said. They noted that it already had some mutations similar to strains that caused pandemics in 1957 and 1968. And that with a few small changes, it could adapt to attack human cells that line the airway, Olsen said.

It “required only a small amount of change to potentially be more devastating in humans,” she said.

The problem with preparing for a pandemic is not so much in the U.S. as it is with other countries whose infrastructure and public health may not be as robust. That is a problem because of the global nature of trade and in particular our reliance on other countries to supply essential drugs and supplies, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

They looked at 30 essential drugs and found that they all are made outside the U.S. except for a couple made in Puerto Rico. Any kind of disruption from a pandemic elsewhere, particularly in India or China, would have a rapid impact on U.S. health care, he said. This is already happening with the devastation in Puerto Rico, which manufactures some drugs for the U.S. already in short supply now, he said. Nor is the U.S. government ready itself to deal with a pandemic, Osterholm said.

“This administration does not have a team in place to deal with that, in my estimation,” he said, though in fairness neither did President Obama. “This is going to take a big team.”

“There are lots of gaps globally,” Olsen said.


Dr. Ripper: Any inside information regarding this?

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 Post subject: Re: U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Of course it is not. The NHS official line in the event of a high mortality flu outbreak is that government officials will be protected, first responders protected, families of the preceding protected, and everyone else subject to "hard decisions" including forcible relocation to places with lots of other possibly-infected people.

Key terms: "NPIs" - Non=pharmaceutical Interventions (forcible relocation into camps etc.)

The operational plan was drafted in 2006. There was an update this year called a plan but it is actually a statement of HHS goals for research to improve the extant plan. Note that the key concerns in the 2006 plan are economic: there is a very explicit concern about not closing the US border because of financial hardship to businesses. There is also a very explicit concern for distributing antivirals and developed vaccines to up to 25% of the population, with the priority on gov't employees and families. Everyone else in America is potentially a statistical write-off.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

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 Post subject: Re: U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:05 am 
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Here's an idea!

Use the internet!

I mean, the current amount of traffic between cities is insane. Simply by limiting unnecessary traffic and travel we could reduce risks considerably.

By establishing work zones, quarantine control zones etc., and having plans for different levels of operations ready and drilled we could simply identify when a disease breaks out in one sector, cordon off that sector according to pre-existing plans and procedures utilizing national guard and rapid response armed NBC units and so on.

- Early detection and response
- Limiting infection to small sectors
- Most of the economy remains unaffected

But since when have politicians ever had any real vision besides how to use their bribes aka campaign funding?

Ensuring survival of mankind under difficult circumstances is boring and no one gives a shit. When it's reacting to something such as an actual military attack there's at least a half assed effort to do something about it in advance but when it's a disease, meteorite, space born plague or whatever, no one literally gives a shit.

It also doesn't help that majority of the egg heads are egg heads and naive and shoot down their own proposals.

"We need to find a way to block meteors"
-"Hey, that sounds great, you guys need any missiles for that?"
"No, we want nothing to do with the military because we're a bunch of whiny hippies who never served and we'll let our personal bias get in the way as we start sneering the guys with the resources to help us. What we had in minds is way too complicated for military who are all highschool dropouts and morons"
-"Go fuck yourselves"

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 Post subject: Re: U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:17 am 
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Well, considering what happened with ONE case of Ebola that arrived in the US by plane, I think you would have to say we may not be prepared for something with nearly 100% ICU care and 40% mortality if it adapted to human to human spread by airborne droplet.

Most people don't realize how bad Influenza can be.

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 Post subject: Re: U.S. not prepared for a flu pandemic, experts warn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:32 pm 
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jack t ripper wrote:
Well, considering what happened with ONE case of Ebola that arrived in the US by plane, I think you would have to say we may not be prepared for something with nearly 100% ICU care and 40% mortality if it adapted to human to human spread by airborne droplet.

Most people don't realize how bad Influenza can be.


Most people are more worried about their chance for public outcry as a diseased individual is being quarantined as opposed to let run free spreading a disease that could kill hundreds of millions of people.

If they paid an promille of the hysteria towards contagious diseases they pay for imaginary 'Nazi threat' we'd all be locked tight to economic zones with 40 day quarantine as a standard precaution when moving from zone to zone.

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