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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:54 pm 
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nero wrote:

If Lizzy Warren would be smart, and she is, she could do what Lille-Greta did. Win the minority support by support of the injuns. And extrapolating that support to blacks and latinos.


Not sure that it is the good thing to do for the Democrats in General, and Warren in particular. By playing the minority card, they play on Trump's ground. It is the best way for him to mobilize his troops and win a big part of the White vote. Warren, like Sanders, have a good score for the primaries because their program is for the entire middle and popular classes, not because they defend minorities.

Because they adopted the ideology of the free market, the social democrat parties in Europe and in America decided to stop supporting the working class and replacing it with the minorities. That is why those parties are disappearing in Europe, and maybe one of the causes why the Democrats lost the 2016 elections.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:18 pm 
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LaPalice wrote:
nero wrote:

If Lizzy Warren would be smart, and she is, she could do what Lille-Greta did. Win the minority support by support of the injuns. And extrapolating that support to blacks and latinos.


Not sure that it is the good thing to do for the Democrats in General, and Warren in particular. By playing the minority card, they play on Trump's ground. It is the best way for him to mobilize his troops and win a big part of the White vote. Warren, like Sanders, have a good score for the primaries because their program is for the entire middle and popular classes, not because they defend minorities.

Because they adopted the ideology of the free market, the social democrat parties in Europe and in America decided to stop supporting the working class and replacing it with the minorities. That is why those parties are disappearing in Europe, and maybe one of the causes why the Democrats lost the 2016 elections.

Warren needs the blacks, the minorities. She should play the we all card, everyone is included. As she IMHO is already doing with her healthcare policies and others.

But conclusion that social democrat parties stopped to support the working class is a wrong diagnosis. I would say that those parties are living the past, the cold war era, can not cope with the more fluid global capitalism. And the robots and machine learning is coming. :roll:

But the 2016 is a different thing all together. It is not that Trump had so overwhelming support, but Hitlary did not get the votes that Obama did. Partly because of her, partly because of social media propaganda against her (disappointed Bernie Brothers or IRA). Or was it Comey?

ABT.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:34 pm 
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nero wrote:
Warren needs the blacks, the minorities. She should play the we all card, everyone is included. As she IMHO is already doing with her healthcare policies and others.

yes, it is what I say, putting the emphasis on healthcare and why not on environemental issues, that is the key.

Quote:
But conclusion that social democrat parties stopped to support the working class is a wrong diagnosis. I would say that those parties are living the past, the cold war era, can not cope with the more fluid global capitalism. And the robots and machine learning is coming. :roll:

Global capitalism is fluid because we let it be it. The neo-liberals want that everybody thinks that there is no alternative, as thatcher said, but there certainly are, capitalism must be and can be more regulated. Imagine that Sanders or Warren wins the elections in 2020, that would be the beginning of a change for the world, because it would happen in the most powerfull country in the world.

You say in another thread that Le Pen is not the answer, but if we let capitalism remain as fluid as it is, nationalist parties will win in ou countries, as we can see it in many occasion. Why Trump won in 2016? Why the leave won in Great Britain? Because we let capitalism be too fluid.

Quote:
But the 2016 is a different thing all together. It is not that Trump had so overwhelming support, but Hitlary did not get the votes that Obama did. Partly because of her, partly because of social media propaganda against her (disappointed Bernie Brothers or IRA). Or was it Comey?

ABT.

Trump won in 2016 because the working class in the key states, who voted for Obama, decided to vote for Trump that time.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:14 pm 
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LaPalice wrote:
nero wrote:
Warren needs the blacks, the minorities. She should play the we all card, everyone is included. As she IMHO is already doing with her healthcare policies and others.

yes, it is what I say, putting the emphasis on healthcare and why not on environemental issues, that is the key.

All that and taxing the 0,01%.

LaPalice wrote:

nero wrote:
But conclusion that social democrat parties stopped to support the working class is a wrong diagnosis. I would say that those parties are living the past, the cold war era, can not cope with the more fluid global capitalism. And the robots and machine learning is coming. :roll:

Global capitalism is fluid because we let it be it. The neo-liberals want that everybody thinks that there is no alternative, as thatcher said, but there certainly are, capitalism must be and can be more regulated. Imagine that Sanders or Warren wins the elections in 2020, that would be the beginning of a change for the world, because it would happen in the most powerfull country in the world.

You say in another thread that Le Pen is not the answer, but if we let capitalism remain as fluid as it is, nationalist parties will win in ou countries, as we can see it in many occasion. Why Trump won in 2016? Why the leave won in Great Britain? Because we let capitalism be too fluid.

Capitalism is a good servant, but a bad master. The global capitalism even more so.

Global problems need global solutions. Like in EU stopping tax crimes/evasion would be a start.

LaPalice wrote:
Quote:
But the 2016 is a different thing all together. It is not that Trump had so overwhelming support, but Hitlary did not get the votes that Obama did. Partly because of her, partly because of social media propaganda against her (disappointed Bernie Brothers or IRA). Or was it Comey?

ABT.

Trump won in 2016 because the working class in the key states, who voted for Obama, decided to vote for Trump that time.

Or decided to vote someone else or not to vote at all. Personally would I have been position to vote Hillary, it would have been a decision between bullet or rope. :(

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:47 pm 
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LaPalice wrote:
nero wrote:
.

But the 2016 is a different thing all together. It is not that Trump had so overwhelming support, but Hitlary did not get the votes that Obama did. Partly because of her, partly because of social media propaganda against her (disappointed Bernie Brothers or IRA). Or was it Comey?

ABT.

Trump won in 2016 because the working class in the key states, who voted for Obama, decided to vote for Trump that time.


LaPalice nailed it.

The “social media propaganda” (those handful of Russian media buys, half of which ran AFTER the election) are not what cost Hillary the election. It was, as LaPalice stated, the working class, in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that were picked up by Trump that won him the election.

Those working class people, labeled by Hillary as “deplorables” swung to Trump, not in overwhelming numbers but enough of them for Trump to pick up those rust belt states. Trump campaigned in those states (some of which Hillary skipped altogether because she thought they were a “sure thing”) and some working class people voted for Trump, enough to win those states, and the election.

Those working class people saw in Trump a candidate that came to campaign to them, he promised them jobs (and deliver per with the lowest unemployment rate in half a century, they saw real increases in their wages, and they saw in a Trump a man who did not belittle them for their beliefs. They voted for Trump, in enough numbers to tip those rust belt states I mentioned in his failure.

In 2020 he will have those same voters, but also pick up other who heard his message, but still voted Democrat. Only this time they have proof that Trump delivered on those promises, and they will also flip to Trump.

And you know who else could be the wildcard in this?
Trump may pick up additional votes in the black community. Trump won’t win a majority of them but will likely improve on the increased support he received in the black community compared to Romney.
Why?
Because unemployment in the black (and brown) communities is at record low levels.
Because he signed the prison reform bill which will help the situation in black communities.
And because some of them are realizing that supporting the Democrat Party for the last 70+ years didn’t work for them.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:04 pm 
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Van Jones on CNN famously and angrily proclaimed that Trumps victory was a "whitelash" against Obama. He was so full of shit I think he was, to his credit, persuaded the election may have been about economic angst due to loss of manufacturing jobs and wage stagnation...which it WAS.

Immigration was a big deal but that is tied in to wage stagnation..which was exactly the point of the Chamber of Commerce wing of the Republicans.....cheap labor so the bosses make more money. As the job prospects have tremendously improved for African-Americans, it is a serious threat to the Dems.

If Trump even gets a quarter of black votes the Dem candidate is screwed in many states...NC, SC, maybe Virginia, Pennsylvania, michigan, maybe even Illinois?

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:09 pm 
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I did predict that Trump will pass Hillary from the left.

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Mit der Dummheit kämpfen selbst Götter vergebens. -- Friedrich Schiller


Last edited by nero on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:22 pm 
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LaPalice wrote:
nero wrote:

If Lizzy Warren would be smart, and she is, she could do what Lille-Greta did. Win the minority support by support of the injuns. And extrapolating that support to blacks and latinos.


Not sure that it is the good thing to do for the Democrats in General, and Warren in particular. By playing the minority card, they play on Trump's ground. It is the best way for him to mobilize his troops and win a big part of the White vote. Warren, like Sanders, have a good score for the primaries because their program is for the entire middle and popular classes, not because they defend minorities.

Because they adopted the ideology of the free market, the social democrat parties in Europe and in America decided to stop supporting the working class and replacing it with the minorities. That is why those parties are disappearing in Europe, and maybe one of the causes why the Democrats lost the 2016 elections.


Nero is in fucking La La Land . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:48 pm 
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Quote:
maybe even Illinois?


That would take a miracle that even Moses would find hard to do.

During the fall 2018 Statewide elections in IL, for statewide offices (governor, Lt. Governor, AG, State Treasure, Comptroller and Sec. of State) Republicans lost ever race. In the closest of those races they lost by only about 12 percentage points; for several of those races the GOP candidate lost by 20% points or more.

Bruce Rauner, the GOP candidate for Governor lost by 16% points, and he was an incumbent. :lol:

In US House races the Dems picked up 2 seats to hold a 13-5 edge.
For those two seats the that GOP lost, one was a 3 term incumbent, the other had held the sat since 2007.

As reference, in 20016 Hillary carried IL over Trump by a 55.83% vs 38.76% margin.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:53 pm 
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Yes. He would have to win about 60% of the Black vote. Then there are the dead people. That's harder to predict. ;)

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