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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:04 pm 
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http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3721 ... rm-chances

Quote:
Polls swing toward GOP, easing fears of midterm disaster

BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 02/04/18 06:00 AM EST

Republicans are feeling better about their prospects in the midterm elections, buoyed by recent polls that show their numbers improving.

An ebullient President Trump touted the shift in public sentiment reflected in recent polls during a joint Senate-House Republican retreat in West Virginia this week.

“I just looked at some numbers, you’ve even done better than you thought,” Trump told lawmakers, citing poll numbers he discussed Thursday with National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Steve Stivers (R-Ohio).

“The numbers are pretty good and that’s one example of how things are getting better,” Stivers told reporters after discussing polling numbers with Trump.

Stivers said the bump in Trump’s approval rating is a good sign for Republicans running for reelection.


“No president in their second year has seen their approval rating go up except now this one,” Stivers noted.
GOP lawmakers discussed the favorable turn in poll numbers during their retreat.

Pollsters David Winston and Myra Miller of the Winston Group gave a presentation to lawmakers Wednesday evening entitled “Middle Class Americans’ Views of the Tax Plan: The Opportunity for 2018.”

A Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday showed that Trump’s approval rating had jumped 10 points compared to last month, while the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot had shrunk to 2 percentage points.

A nationwide Monmouth survey in December showed Democrats with a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot.

The generic ballot question, which asks respondents if they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their own district, is considered an indicator of future wave elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday showed that Trump’s approval rating has ticked up in the past week.

Another Reuters/Ipsos poll shows voters think Republicans have a better plan for jobs and employment than Democrats, by a margin of 37.6 percent to 27.8 percent.


“The numbers for or against Republicans in different states have moved dramatically favorable, where two months ago there was a much lower rating,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). “There were about four or five polls they listed out.”

The swing in the polling numbers has been matched by a swing in sentiment.

The political landscape looked bleakest for the GOP in the second half of 2017, after their top legislative priority — the repeal and replacement of ObamaCare — floundered in the Senate.
That failure raised doubts over Trump’s ability to work with Congress to deliver accomplishments.

Meanwhile, public attention was fixed on the appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller to investigate allegations of collusion between Trump’s inner circle and Russian government officials, as well as potential obstruction of justice by the president.

Trump’s approval rating hit a low of 33 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll on Dec. 13, a week before Congress passed the final version of the tax package.

Democrats on Friday dismissed the optimistic talk from Republicans, arguing that, while Trump’s numbers have improved, they’re still low.

“President Trump’s numbers are abysmal, and it’s dragging down vulnerable House Republicans deep into the map. Any slight uptick is starting at a very low bar,” said Tyler Law, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to recapture control of the House and two seats to win back the Senate.

Democrats say House Republicans are vulnerable because they have suffered a spate of retirements and face trouble recruiting strong candidates to make up for those losses.

“For the candidates that the NRCC has touted in their ‘Young Guns’ program, they have either completely failed to launch or fizzled out. Simply put, House Republicans’ offensive opportunities are nonexistent — a bad sign for an already imperiled Republican majority,” Law said.

Republicans have also faced trouble convincing top potential Senate recruits to run against vulnerable Democratic senators.

“Republicans spent the last year working to raise health care costs and then give a tax break to millionaires and big corporations while middle class voters foot the bill,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein said in a statement. “No wonder they lost their first, second, third and in some cases fourth choice recruits and are now struggling through divisive and nasty primaries.”

A Democratic wave looked all but inevitable two months ago. Some in the party were talking in mid-December about a 40-seat pickup, but a tsunami of that magnitude now looks much less likely.

Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), a former NRCC chairman, said the environment is looking “much better” for his party compared to two months ago.

“I think you’re seeing all the data improve,” Walden said.

Walden believes Democrats made a tactical mistake by taking a hard stance against the tax bill. It passed the Senate and House without a single Democratic vote in either chamber.

“The Democrats have completely overplayed their hand. When [House Democratic Leader] Nancy Pelosi [Calif.] says $1,000 or $2,000 is ‘crumbs,’ people in West Virginia, rural Oregon go, ‘$1000 is a lot of money to me,’ ” Walden said.

He argued the tax victory also saved the party’s standing with its conservative base, which threatened to desert them following the health-care debacle.

“Our base said, ‘OK, you guys actually could come together and get something big done.’ So you’re seeing that reflected in the generic ballot that has gone from double digits down to single digits,” he said.

“It feels like it’s bottomed out and we’re coming back up,” he said. “We will have a very good record to run on.”

He also noted that Trump’s numbers “are getting better.”

Walden acknowledged that House Republicans don’t have many pickup opportunities, but argued that the party is focused on playing defense, not offense, this year.

“Let’s face it: in the last two cycles you had a 247-seat majority and 241-seat majority. Those are the biggest Republican back-to-back majorities in the history of the country,” he said. “It’s holding in a time like this. The marginal gain is limited.”

Vice President Pence and GOP leaders urged rank-and-file members to stress whenever possible the economic impact of the $1.5 trillion tax package Congress passed last year.

“We made history in 2016, and we’re going to make history in 2018 when we reelect Republican majorities in the House and Senate,” he said. “We got our work cut out for us, but we have a story to tell.”

Trump, speaking to Republicans the next afternoon, stressed the creation of 2.4 million jobs since he took office and the nation’s 4.1 percent unemployment rate, near a record low.

GOP strategists are heartened by a belief that the U.S. and global economy are poised to kick into overdrive, as well as by big commitments from wealthy conservative donors.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index are up nearly 6 percent year to date after posting big gains in 2017.

At the same time, every one of the world’s major economies is expanding — the first time there has been synchronous global growth since the Great Recession hit a decade ago.

A massive pledge from a network of groups and donors affiliated with industrialists Charles and David Koch to spend $400 million on conservative causes and candidates in 2018 has also made Republicans more optimistic about the midterms.

The promised investment would be 60 percent more than the network spent in the 2016 presidential cycle.

Republicans also say congressional districts drawn to favor Republicans will give them another advantage.

“Seldom do you have a wave election year, 2010, followed by a redistricting year, and we had that in 2011. So a lot of these seats are pretty baked in,” said Walden.

House Democrats want to make the midterms a referendum on Trump, but Republicans say they will counter that by tying Democratic candidates to Pelosi, as they did in last year’s special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

“We were able to use Nancy Pelosi to help win that race, and you’ll probably see that in other places,” Stivers said.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:58 pm 
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So....did you see the latest move by the DNC?

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, Bernie Sanders could not be a candidate on the Democratic ticket.

http://freebeacon.com/politics/dnc-vote ... y-members/

Quote:
DNC Votes to Require Dem 2020 Primary Candidates Be Registered Party Members

Bernie Sanders supporters accuse the party of ‘spite’ after 2016


Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images
BY: Paul Crookston
June 9, 2018 3:02 pm

The Democratic National Committee voted Friday to change its rules and bar anyone from running for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination without being a Democrat at the time of announcing one’s candidacy.

In 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) ran an unexpectedly competitive primary campaign against Hillary Clinton despite being an independent, and the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee appears to have this in mind with the new rule, Yahoo News reports. Sanders’ supporters are interpreting the move as a sign of spite.

"We just came off a devastating presidential loss in 2016. It would seem to me the actual impetus would be to expand the Democratic party. I just for the life of me don’t see any motivation for this beyond personal spite," said Mark Longabaugh, who was a senior adviser to Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign.

Sanders is an independent who has identified as a democratic socialist and caucuses with the Democratic Party in the Senate. His 2016 presidential campaign claimed he would become a Democrat "for life," but he ultimately decided not to join up, remaining an independent in the Senate.

The rule may not affect Sanders himself if he does decide to run in 2020, however. He has typically chosen to run for the Democratic Party’s nomination in Vermont Senate races to fend off Democratic opponents and then has declined the Democratic nomination, running in the general election as an independent. The Vermont Democratic Party has supported this strategy and ruled he enjoys the "rights and privileges" of a party member.

But the decision is still a move toward exclusivity in the party, which is a criticism Sanders’ supports have trumpeted on the party's newly formed Unity Reform Commission.

"I don’t have any worries that Bernie Sanders could meet the criteria to run as a Democrat in 2020, but it always puzzles me that there are some Democrats who want to do this and promote this," Longabaugh said. "I scratch my head and ask why they would want to make the party more narrow and more exclusive."

Sanders’ former campaign manager said the Democratic Party should not be excluding the "millions" on the left who aren’t in the party.

"Do they really want Bernie and millions outside the party?" Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign manager Jeff Weaver said.

On Saturday, the last day of the rules and bylaws committee meeting, members will vote on whether to keep superdelegates, the unpledged delegates in the primary that Sanders and his supporters said favored the establishment. The pro-Sanders faction of the Unity Reform Commission have demanded superdelegates be eliminated from the process, and some think that is now more likely given the new requirement for party membership.

Maria Cardona, a party operative who previously worked for Clinton, said the requirement had unanimous support.

"The entire committee backed this. It was unanimous," Cardona said. "It was done to ensure that the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party is actually a Democrat."


Sanders is running for re-election in Vermont this year. He is expected to win the Aug. 14 Democratic primary by a wide margin.



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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:22 pm 
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More of evidence the subconscious suicide-wish the party is suffering.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:32 pm 
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Anthropoid wrote:
More of evidence the subconscious suicide-wish the party is suffering.


But Nero would have us believe that the Dems will sweep everything in a "blue wave". :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:01 pm 
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It never occurred to me that Bernie was not a Dem when he ran.

You have to admit that is pretty funny. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:48 pm 
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I predict Democrats will lose very badly. Again.

Today I read Robert De Niro apologizing to the world in my behalf. How DARE that stupid, senile old fuck! HOW DARE HE! That mother fucker doesn't speak for me. How fucking arrogant for him to even think he does for one second. Makes me furious.

I apologize often b/c I often should but I don't need or want some hollywood asshole deciding when I should or shouldn't apologize. I don't apologize for president Trump at all! I think he's awesome. De'niro can go fuck imself. I thought that asshole said he'd move to Canada. Well, the 330 millions you claim to speak for are waiting. Need a kick in the ass to help you on your way?

Fucking prick :roll:

Canada don't want im either. The guy's an asshole.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:48 pm 
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The only persons D'niro should be apologizing to is the United States population for being so arrogant that he thinks he's entitled/authorized to apologize for any of us about anything, and also for being a national embarrassment. What an asshole. president Trump should deport his dumb ass to whatever country will claim im. He'll prolly get shipped back C.O.D. the prick.

He might have tried to move to Canada and was refused visa. What a dickhead. He prolly can't move anywhere else.

Even the hypocrite celebs applauding im would get a restraining order if he got w/in 5 miles im.



Imagine im trying to enter a gated community :lol:


"SIR THIS IS THE SECURITY GATE CALLING. WE HAVE AN UNREGISTERED 'GUEST' A MR ROBERT D'NIRO HERE TO SEE YOU?

oh dear!. ahm, act like I didn't answer and send im off will you

SORRY, MR D'NIRO, THERE'S NO ANSWER. YOU'LL HAVE TO LEAVE I'M SORRY, SIR."

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:09 pm 
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"HE'S GONE, SIR

thank goodness

HE LEFT YOU A MESSAGE REGARDING HIS THOUGHT'S OF PRESIDENT TRUMP.

ffs....

HE SAID IT'S URGENT.

toss it. got ur tip set aside, good man. good day

I'LL HANDLE IT. THANK YOU, SIR

thanks, man. g'night.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:05 pm 
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Quote:
Republicans are feeling better about their prospects in the midterm elections, buoyed by recent polls that show their numbers improving.



POLLS !!!


Ah sh^t ... they're in trouble now !!!

How often are the POLLs right !!?? :D

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:32 am 
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C_S wrote:
D'niro


Tune him out, mate.

Just another fucking actor who thinks his opinion matters.

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