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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:58 pm 
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I thought migrants were a good thing, how come the EU seems to get wary about Turkey threatening them with more then?

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:09 pm 
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EUBanana wrote:
I thought migrants were a good thing...

Confessions of a hard core brexiter. :lol:

70 million turks coming to Britain and such... :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:53 pm 
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Breaking news that should shock no one:

Quote:

Turkey elections 2018: Erdoğan claims victory

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:14 pm 
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chijohnaok wrote:
Breaking news that should shock no one:

Quote:

Turkey elections 2018: Erdoğan claims victory


Putin's last election was more suspenseful

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 pm 
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Quote:
Turkey Turns On Its Christians

Anne-Christine Hoff

Middle East Quarterly Summer 2018 Volume 25: Number 3

June 01, 2018

An increasingly precarious situation for Turkey's tiny Christian minority.

(Continued)
https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/t ... christians

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:40 pm 
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Quote:
... Er Dog claims victory ...
.... that's funny :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:57 pm 
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ns-targets

Quote:
U.S. Prepares List of Turkey Economic Sanctions Targets

By Benjamin Harvey
August 1, 2018, 11:51 AM EDT Updated on August 1, 2018, 12:38 PM EDT

    Magnitsky penalties would target corruption, rights abuses
    Negotiations over evangelical pastor held by Turkey ongoing

The U.S. has prepared a list of Turkish entities and individuals to target should it decide to impose sanctions on Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government for imprisoning U.S. citizens and employees of its diplomatic mission, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The lira slid.

While negotiations to release one of the people, evangelical Pastor Andrew Brunson, are ongoing, the preparation of the so-called “designation packages" shows how close the U.S. has come to imposing unprecedented penalties against a NATO ally. The sanctions are modeled on those against the Russian government and oligarchs close to President Vladimir Putin, the people said, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The U.S. has extended deadlines this week to release Brunson or face sanctions, according to Turkish and U.S. officials familiar with the talks. The people and entities determined in the designation packages would need to be approved by the Treasury secretary and secretary of state.

The sanctions are being prepared under the Global Magnitsky Act of 2016, which allows the U.S. government to target individuals, companies or other entities involved in corruption or human-rights abuses anywhere in the world. Sanctions under the act allow for the seizure of assets in the U.S., travel bans and prohibitions on doing business with U.S. entities.

Lira Plunges
Turkey’s lira plunged to a record low of 4.9985 after Bloomberg News reported the possible sanctions, extending its decline to 4.5 percent since July 26, when Vice President Mike Pence threatened sanctions over the Brunson case. Yields on Turkey’s 10-year debt hit a record 18.86 percent on Tuesday. The Borsa Istanbul 100 index has lost 36 percent in dollar-adjusted terms this year, the second-worst performance in the world after Venezuela.

A U.S. Treasury spokesman didn’t immediately reply to an emailed request for comment.

The scope of the sanctions highlights the disconnect between Washington and Ankara as they try to negotiate a way out of the deadlock, with Turkish officials still apparently believing the Trump administration is bluffing.

Bankers who have met with Turkish officials say the sanctions threats are not being taken seriously in Ankara, even as they risk cutting off financing to an economy dependent on imported capital. For their part, U.S. officials’ patience with Turkey’s negotiating tactics is wearing thin.

‘Hostages’
Within the State Department, Brunson and other prisoners including NASA scientist Serkan Golge and three Turkish employees of the U.S. mission to Turkey are referred to as “hostages." The U.S. says they’re innocent and being held by Turkey for the sole purpose of extracting concessions on other points of tension in the U.S.-relationship.

The two countries have quarreled over a panoply of foreign policy issues that have driven the onetime allies to outright hostility. Foremost among them are differences over policy in Syria and Iran, Turkish suspicions about the U.S. response to a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan, and the Turkish leadership’s budding friendship with Putin.

The Magnitsky sanctions under consideration could be just the start of what would look like a U.S. assault on Turkey’s vulnerable economy. The U.S. is also considering a hefty fine on state-run lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS for its role in evading U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program, and it would impose sanctions on Turkey when it receives delivery of a missile defense system from Russia, expected in 2019.

Deal Fails
As of last week, the Americans thought they had a deal that would bring Brunson home, according to accounts by officials on both sides of the matter. In return for the release of evangelical pastor, who’s been imprisoned for almost two years on charges including involvement in the failed coup, the U.S. administration would recommend a lenient fine on Halkbank. The U.S. also offered to send Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a former executive at the bank who’s been jailed in the U.S., back to Turkey to serve out the rest of his term.

As a final sweetener to the Turks, U.S. President Donald Trump said he’d get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to release a Turkish citizen, Ebru Ozkan, who’d been arrested in Israel on accusations of abetting Hamas. Netanyahu did it, and Ozkan was sent back to Turkey on July 16.


The Americans waited for Erdogan to deliver on his side of the deal: Brunson was to be released and then deported at a hearing on July 18. Instead, Turkey changed the conditions of the agreement at the last minute, with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu interjecting to demand that any probe of Halkbank be dropped, according to Turkish and U.S. officials. The deal fell apart and Brunson was moved to house arrest.

The Americans had been carrying out the negotiations through a backchannel with a person close to Erdogan, according to people familiar with the matter. But they have had a difficult time gauging whether or not the Turkish side fully comprehends the possible consequences of U.S. sanctions on Turkey’s economy.

That’s made it harder for the U.S. to take decisive action as the U.S. is reluctant to take action that could risk tanking the economy of a nominally allied country, or bringing down its banking system. Turkish companies and banks depend on foreign capital to plug one of the world’s largest current-account deficits, which requires about $200 million a day in foreign financing.

Ironically, the damage that U.S. action could do to Turkey makes it more hesitant to act and strengthens Turkey’s negotiating position, according to Asli Aydintasbas, an Istanbul-based senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“I have seen this over and over in this relationship going back two decades, on a much smaller scale," Aydintasbas said. “The price of actually doing something is so big that Turkey has a psychological advantage. It’s as if they have more power, whereas it’s the other way around."

— With assistance by Saleha Mohsin, and Firat Kozok


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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:02 am 
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Quote:
Turkish lira drops 14%, hits fresh record low after Trump authorizes doubling metals tariffs on Turkey
Fred Imbert | @foimbert
Published 59 Mins Ago Updated 1 Min Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/turkish ... vert-.html
The Turkish lira added to its steep losses on Friday, hitting a fresh record low, after President Donald Trump authorized the doubling of metals tariffs on Turkey.

The lira traded down 14 percent against the U.S. dollar at 6.26 after Trump made the comment in a tweet.

....

The sharp drop in Turkish assets came after a delegation returned from Washington with no apparent progress on the detention of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson, who is charged with supporting a group blamed for an attempted coup in 2016.

Last month, Trump threatened to slap "large sanctions" on the country if it refuses to free Brunson. The U.S. then announced on Aug. 1 sanctions on Turkey's justice and interior ministers, prohibiting U.S. citizens from doing business with them.
Good!

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:55 am 
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Quote:
And another one, this time it's Vietnam: Yellow Ribbon Project
Lawmakers Ask Pompeo for Help to Free California Man Held Without Charge by Vietnam
By Bridget Johnson August 10, 2018

California lawmakers, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.), urged Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to "make every effort" to free an Orange County, Calif., man detained without charge since June by Vietnam.
(Continued)
https://pjmedia.com/yellowribbonproject ... y-vietnam/
As the article sez we just got another guy released in Vietnam.

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 Post subject: Re: Erdogan Leads Turkey to the Precipice
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:50 pm 
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Apparently Allah is going to help stabilize the Turkish Lira. Honestly. I didn't know he did that kind of thing but I am not a muzzie.

Quote:
Lira collapses as Erdogan tells Turks: They have 'their dollars,' we have 'our god'
Turkish lira hits all-time low versus the U.S. dollar.
The country's economy is viewed as imbalanced due to rampant inflation.
The United States has also threatened to impose "big sanctions" over a U.S. pastor.
David Reid | @cnbcdavy
Published 6 Hours Ago Updated 42 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
President Donald Trump is seen during his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (not seen), at Lotte Hotel in New York, United States on September 21, 2017. World leaders gathered in New York for the 72nd Session of the UN General Assembly. Trump puts pressure on Turkey with doubled tariffs
2 Hours Ago | 03:11
The Turkish lira has collapsed to an all-time low against the dollar, but the country's leader has brushed aside concerns, telling Turks "we have our God." The Turkish President Recep Erdogan then followed those comments up Friday by urging Turks to sell dollars and gold and buy lira.

At around 8:00 a.m. ET Friday, the lira had fallen to $7.081, an almost 11 percent loss for the session. It has since pared some losses. As recently as April one dollar bought about four Turkish lira.

The first wave of selling came early Friday after a Turkish delegation returned from the United States with apparently no progress on the detention of a U.S. pastor. The evangelist, Andrew Brunson, is charged with supporting a group blamed for an attempted coup in 2016.

President Donald Trump said in July that the U.S. would place "large sanctions" on the country for the pastor's detention. On Friday, Trump appeared to back that position up by posting on Twitter that he would double the level of tariffs on steel and aluminum to 20 percent and 50 percent respectively.


Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!


Late Thursday, and prior to Trump's tweet, Erdogan said he would stand up to pressure from the United States.

"There are various campaigns being carried out. Don't heed them," Erdogan said Thursday. "Don't forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now," Erdogan told supporters.

On Friday afternoon Erdogan dug in again, calling for citizens to convert out of dollars and gold and buy the lira to help fight a "national struggle". In response, the currency renewed its sell-off. In his speech in the northeastern city of Bayburt, Erdogan added that he would decisively defend the country against economic attacks.

The lira's three-month implied volatility gauge hit its highest since late 2008. Implied volatility shows the market's opinion of the currency's potential moves. If the implied volatility is high, the market things the currency has potential for large price swings in either direction.

European bank concern
The euro dropped 0.5 percent against the dollar on Friday morning, following reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned over the impact of a weak Turkish lira on European banks.

According to the Financial Times, the lira's depreciation could hurt European banks such as Spain's BBVA, Italy's UniCredit, and France's BNP Paribas in particular.

Turkey's central bank has zero credibility, strategist says Turkey's central bank has zero credibility, strategist says
7 Hours Ago | 04:41
Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Friday, Timothy Ash said the FT report was "sensationalist" as any losses incurred by the banks would be by local subsidiary branches who had invested using Turkish lira and not U.S. dollars.

He added however that while banks in Turkey remained in reasonable shape, the country did have a problem with its balance of payments that has occurred because the economy had been allowed to overheat.

"Ultimately now, there is zero credibility in the Central Bank of Turkey and zero credibility in Turkish policy making. Whatever they do, the market doesn't believe them," Ash said.

Economic pressure
Turkey's economy is seen as particularly fragile due to its high level of debt that is priced in dollars. The more the lira weakens, the more expensive that debt becomes. The latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the total amount of Turkish debt payable in other currencies is more than 50 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

Inflation in the country has been rampant with consumer prices rising almost 16 percent in July alone. While the country's central bank has raised interest rates in the past to support the currency and quell inflation, the most recent meeting in July saw the Turkish central bank unexpectedly hold its benchmark interest rate at 17.75 percent. Erdogan has repeatedly insisted that rates should not be raised too high, triggering suggestions that the central bank doesn't act with full independence.

Berat Albayrak, Turkey's finance minister, is set to reveal "a new economic model" later Friday.

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