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 Post subject: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:16 am 
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Theresa May just announced a snap election, which if Parliament approves (they will) will happen in June 2017. Only been two years since the last one.

Canny. Article 50 has been invoked so we're leaving the EU, the only question is who is handling the negotiation - May, or numpty Corbyn. It's already being painted as the Brexit Election and it's day 1!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10318089

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:32 am 
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Ballsy as well as wily it would seem.

Bravo Theresa!

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:20 am 
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A victory of the left would be interesting if the Labour and Corbyn were able to rid of the Blairist candidates. Otherwise it would be the same social democrats as in the rest of Europe, people who destroy sovereignty.

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:50 am 
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It's bad for the Labour left. Corbyn hasn't finished updating the party constitution and putting his people in the upper echelons of the party bureaucracy. Give it another year and his people would be far more deeply entrenched.

As it is he's going to get slaughtered at the polls and may have to resign.

Unless reality throws another curveball of course.

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:51 am 
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My Facebook feed full of people moaning about how Corbyn would win if he campaigned on a eurosceptic manifesto.

1) How does adopting the policy that lost last year help him?
2) Labour is fekt

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:02 pm 
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EUBanana wrote:
It's bad for the Labour left. Corbyn hasn't finished updating the party constitution and putting his people in the upper echelons of the party bureaucracy. Give it another year and his people would be far more deeply entrenched.

As it is he's going to get slaughtered at the polls and may have to resign.

Unless reality throws another curveball of course.

In France, the guy who is equivalent to Corbyn in our Labour party, the Socialist party, Jean Luc Mélenchon, left the party in 2008 and created his own party.

Now, he is one of the candidates who could be at the second round of the presidential elections next Sunday, even if others have better lucks than him. When at the same time the socialist party almost desappeared.

Corbyn should do like Mélenchon.

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:15 pm 
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So EU, what is your perception on why take this risk?

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Anthropoid wrote:
So EU, what is your perception on why take this risk?


I'm surprised she's done what she did tbh. She must think her majority of 12 is not sufficient, either that or she's looking at 2020 and wanting to be in a firmer position but I think that's a little weak.

If her majority isn't enough then she must be planning on something radical which is going to piss off more than 12 of her members. Given Brexit is the obvious issue, one assumes it must be to do with that. Question is, assuming an increased Tory majority, who will be screwed over? the Europhiles or the Eurosceptics? I imagine only May knows that. We'll have to see the manifesto pledges.

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Obviously with another election that means the referendum loses that much moral authority, it's no longer the most recent vote.

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 Post subject: Re: Snap Election!
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:28 pm 
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EUBanana wrote:
Obviously with another election that means the referendum loses that much moral authority, it's no longer the most recent vote.


Uh . . . well, she was _in favor_ of "the referendum" right? So why would she be interested in doing something that would reduce the moral authority of that referendum?

Honestly, your system baffles the shit out of me: oh hey! lets have another election, why not!? :P

She does not seem to be stupid, and I'd bet she is not doing this without collaboration by other Tories, eh? So, they must think it is a strategically wise move, despite the fact that no one (other than Vladimir Rasputinivich Putin) can determine the outcome of an election . . . There is of course the risk that the conservative party loses control in such an election right?

On the other hand, what do you gain inherently or stochastically from an election?

I would presume that there is _some_ degree of inherent gain in 'strength' or favor among the non-elite, non-establishment, non-left aspects of U.K. citizenry, simply from CALLING an election. It demonstrates bravery and confidence and is also likely to motivate those who feel strongly about the issues to engage with voting.

This sort of inherent benefit, might well be subtracted to some extent if opposition is able to leverage their position effectively. Given that opposition is "the left" and much of the mass media and intelligentsia in Britain swing left, I'd say there is no trivial risk of opposition being able to gain some traction from an election. Granted, their ability to do so might be limited by the fact it is a short time frame and this may well have taken them very much by surprise but . . . in sum: this seems like it may be a rather double-edged sword?

And then of course, the vagaries of election.

Despite our common middle-to-right leanings on this board, I think it behooves us to acknowledge that, in our societies (US, UK, France, etc.) at this time, populations seem to be roughly half-and-half divided between leftists and rightsts. The margins by which Trump won were not particularly large and I was under the impression it was the same for recent conservative wins in the UK. A win by Le Pen would similarly be fairly narrow I presume?

Lots of factors come into play in an election and the obvious risk would seem to be that the Torys not only do not extend their majority but suffer a setback and lose that majority?

Given the Brexit thing is more-or-less final, I find it strange to take that risk at this time. But then maybe Brexit is not so "final" as we have been led to think? With an inscrutable bureacracy like the EU, there may well be fine print somewhere which was overlooked until recently and which change the strategic forces in such a way that: going forward toward finalizing the Article 50 actions, the conservatives have realized they NEED a larger majority in Parliament?

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Anthro: Answer question #2: How do "Climate Change models" mathematically control for the natural forces which caused the Ice Age(s) to come and go . . . repeatedly?


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