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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:09 pm 
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EUBanana wrote:
I don't really see how the remainiacs can get out of it long term. At some point there'll be an election and then the Tories will win it. All the LibDem surge is doing is splitting the remainiac vote.

The only way they won't win is if they start becoming remainiacs again - and then the polling should warn them what'll happen if they do.

As you can see by the opposition not wanting an election. They will be reviled if this goes on for a long time.


Depends. Boris might as well lose the election, especially if he fails to deliver Brexit by 31st October, which appears to be the default outcome right now. After all, he is legally bound to asking for an extension to that deadline. If so, the Brexit party might be splitting the brexiteer vote. Boris has the incredible luck he is running against Corbyn though, who would be pretty hard to lose against! :lol:

Then again, didn't the Conservaties lose a by-election only weeks after Boris taking office?


Last edited by KAding on Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:43 pm 
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Anthropoid wrote:
But . . . IS THERE such a thing as a Brexit "with" Deal? I thought the deal that was already on offer from EU was: No deal?

<snip>

I mean, ffs: the process for withdrawing is all written out in some kind of fucking E.U. documentation isn't it!? The process was started years ago, and it is STILL dragging on and on, and my understanding was the position the current E.U. leadership took was: "Oh sure, you can exit. But it is gonna cost you BIG TIME, and we will hate you forever and punish you for as long and hard as we can . . ." basically Versailles Treaty approach.


The process to quit the EU is actually quite simple. All the UK had to do is at a time of their choosing initiate the Article 50 procedure to leave. By default it would then leave two years later. That is it. The EU actually has no way to prevent the UK from leaving at that point.

Now, of course. The problem is that the UK is internally divided. The public is divided. The political parties are divided. Different parts of the union are divided (Scots and NI voted to remain in EU, England most for Brexit). People are scared what will happen in Northern Ireland with regard to the Good Friday Agreement. Businesses are scared shitless about what will happen to the economy once the UK leaves the single market and customs union. All those internal UK issues are the reasons for the delays, not some dictats from the EU.

Which part of the withdrawal agreement are comparable "Versailles treaty" in your opinion then? :?


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:49 pm 
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chijohnaok wrote:
jwilkerson wrote:
Or maybe korbin can form one !!! :lol:



I am no expert regarding British politics but the impression that I get is that:
---many want to stop BREXIT and stymie Boris Johnson
---at the same time, no one else is interested in forming a government to replace him

It's much easier to CRITICIZE those in charge than it is to BE in charge.


True. But this was also true for the squad currently in government. Those in her own party who repeatedly voted against the deal negotiated by May, yet are pretty much at a loss now on how to proceed. They are finding out there isn't really a political majority for their no-deal scenario either.


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:54 pm 
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KAding wrote:
LaPalice wrote:
Some people in France, and Macron and those around him might be among them, would like to see Great Britain leaving the EU. Because in their mind, if it is the case, all the financiers in the City will desire to leave the UK and go to Europe, to keep their hand on the EU financial market. And they would like that those financiers choose France, making Paris one of the biggest financial place in the world.

That seems utopian maybe, but a part of the French elites are jealous of the anglo world and the importance it has in the financial world. The French have always dreamt to play a key role in the financial market. That is why there was the Credit Lyonnais bank scandal in the 90's for example.

Otherwise, all over Europe, all the Europhiles want to keep Britain in EU, and I would not be surprised that their intransigence in the discussion are made to force Great Britain to remain in the EU. At least to give a lesson to those who would like to leave.


I disagree. The eurofederalists don't want to keep the UK in, as the UK was always against ever closer political union. This would no doubt be even more true if for whatever reason the EU still don't manage to leave over the next few years.

The UK has historically always been promoting the EU as an economic union, as a single market, as a customs union. Ironically, that appears what they now so desperately appear to want to leave :?.

At least for one thing the eurofederalists would desire that GB remains in the EU, by solidarity with all the remainers in GB. In my opinion the europhiles are very utopists, that added to the fact that they don't like sovereignty made them think that no border must remain in Europe, and even beyond, some of them want that Turkey, or even Georgia and Ukraine, enter in the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:37 pm 
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KAding wrote:
chijohnaok wrote:


I am no expert regarding British politics but the impression that I get is that:
---many want to stop BREXIT and stymie Boris Johnson
---at the same time, no one else is interested in forming a government to replace him

It's much easier to CRITICIZE those in charge than it is to BE in charge.


True. But this was also true for the squad currently in government. Those in her own party who repeatedly voted against the deal negotiated by May, yet are pretty much at a loss now on how to proceed. They are finding out there isn't really a political majority for their no-deal scenario either.



Quote:
The referendum resulted in 51.9% of votes being in favour of leaving the EU (17,410,742 votes).

From Wikipedia.

I realize that the referendum was non-binding, but at the end of the day, people in the UK voted to leave.

If the politicians cannot get their act together to carry out the will of the people, then that is sad. When a government fails to carry out the will of the people, then eventually the people may decide that the government is unable to do its job. The people may look for other options.

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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:41 am 
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chijohnaok wrote:
Quote:
The referendum resulted in 51.9% of votes being in favour of leaving the EU (17,410,742 votes).

From Wikipedia.

I realize that the referendum was non-binding, but at the end of the day, people in the UK voted to leave.

If the politicians cannot get their act together to carry out the will of the people, then that is sad. When a government fails to carry out the will of the people, then eventually the people may decide that the government is unable to do its job. The people may look for other options.


True, but what kind of Brexit?

  • Norway-style staying in single market and customs union?
  • Only stay in customs union
  • May-deal in which UK would leave both customs union and single market, but striving for free-trade with EU
  • No-deal (aka "Hard Brexit") with no transition period and outside single market, customs union and with WTO trading scheme (tariffs)
  • Etc...

Keep in mind that even those who campaigned for a Brexit during the referendum often referred to the Swiss or Norwegian models. It is not true that people who voted for Brexit voted against the EU single market, free trade with the EU or against a customs union with the EU.

The problem is not that there is no majority in parliament for Brexit, it is just that there is no majority for "no deal" or May's deal. Different "rebels" within the Conservative parties keep voting against it depending on what is proposed. I have not seen a poll yet that shows public support for a "no deal" Brexit. In short, all sides in the UK have the "my way or the high way" approach to this, so everything is blocked. Ironically, the UK would already have left the EU if the "no deal" squad that currently runs government would not have voted against their own Prime Minister earlier this year :?.

In many ways this resembles the view also held among the wider public, where there are no majorities for the different options either.


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:41 am 
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Here for the yanks. Politico made some super-easy ( :lol: ) diagrams to illustrate the different Brexit options and issues:
Image
Image

Good luck ;)

https://www.politico.eu/article/uks-bre ... explained/


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:43 am 
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LaPalice wrote:
At least for one thing the eurofederalists would desire that GB remains in the EU, by solidarity with all the remainers in GB.


That is true. Currently the UK is the only country in the EU where there are people daily waving EU flags enthusiastically :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:34 am 
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Oh no, they're carrying off the big golden stick, what does that means !!! :o

Image

Where are they taking it !!??

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 Post subject: Re: EU and Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:41 am 
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Is a "Malthouse" a place you buy beer ??

I guess the eeee yyeeeewww would rather have a "whinehouse" ??

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